World Journal Weekly on May 21, 2006 Published a Special Report
Regarding Mr. Lee's View on "Conservative Put Themselves In
An Immigration Pickle"
By Alan Lee, Esq.†‡
It's morning in America again. The Republican conservatives in
Congress overplayed their hand in passing a House bill making felons
of all undocumented immigrants, and their hand is now caught in
the proverbial cookie jar by the vast numbers of such and their
supporters who have risen up to oppose the conservative measure.
The conservatives were arrogant in believing that those illegal
in the country were too afraid to protest and certain conservative
members expressed indignation that illegals actually dared to show
their faces rather than remain hiding in the shadows. The Senate
compromise (currently stalled as of the date of this writing) with
its multilayered approach in the form of comprehensive immigration
legislation is not perfect and requires improvement, but at least
offers the hope of an earned legalization at the end of a long road.
It is not an amnesty as opponents of legislation have suggested,
but the culmination of a long and difficult journey which includes
fines, constant work, payment of back taxes, learning English, and
waiting in the back of the line to obtain permanent status.
What is fast becoming accepted fact is that the Government cannot
deport the 10-14 million illegals already in the country. The Center
for American Progress estimated the costs of mass deportation efforts
to be at least $206 billion over five years, with the costs reaching
as high as $230 billion or more. These figures approach the total
amount of money requested by the 33 federal agencies responsible
for homeland security efforts for fiscal year 2006. President Bush
acknowledged in late April, 2006, to a business group in Orange
County, Calif., that "massive deportation ... is unrealistic.
It's just not going to work. "
Conservatives are realizing now that Americans are mystified why
being illegal in the country should be classified a felony, whereas
it has always in the past been regarded as no more than a civil
offense. (A civil offense generally involves a fine or other punishment
but not jail time while a felony is defined as an offense punishable
by one or more years imprisonment.) They will likely in the near
future take the idea off the table in the hope of putting the genie
back into the bottle or put up so much opposition in the House (assuming
that a Senate compromise can be brokered) that any hopes for comprehensive
immigration legislation will be doomed.
But the genie will not be put back into the bottle if the protests
and marches continue in the numbers that have already been seen.
Conservatives and their supporters have attempted to characterize
the huge turnouts as not indicative of the views of most Americans,
and that the flags of other countries which are being shown in the
rallies indicate the divided allegiance of the marchers. They have
further attempted to instill fear into illegals with recent highly
publicized raids, and at least one member of Congress has envisioned
a massive pickup of people at the protests remarking that they were
all at one location. These measures to dampen the massive pro-immigration
activities are easily seen for what they are - acts of desperation.
Pulling the proposed felony law at this time would be seen as too
little too late. In the same vein that the King of Nepal's late
April attempts to appease the protesters of his monarchistic rule
by satisfying their initial demands failed, such an attempt to mollify
pro-immigration supporters should equally fail as the swelling rallies'
demands will not be satisfied with such a resolution. The debate
has gone far beyond that narrow provision, and is now centered upon
the demand for some legally recognizable permanent status which
will involve much time, multiple steps and hard work, and thus not
be regarded as an amnesty.
The attention of the nation is now focused on immigration only
because of the pouring out onto the streets of undocumented immigrants
and their allies. The only way that the debate on immigration will
quiet is if they stop marching. Then the conservatives hope that
the immigration issue will fade from the public eye and they can
use their political skills to defeat comprehensive legislation.
It should be remembered that prior to the huge march in Los Angeles
on March 10th, the most realistic hope for immigration reform was
a guest worker program only and liberal senators viewed the immigration
issue as such a no-win issue that they were more interested in appearing
at Irish than Hispanic rallies.
The major problem for the Republican conservatives is the timeline.
Unfortunately for them, 2006 is the year of November midterm elections.
The Republicans are widely perceived as the anti-immigration party,
and if the perception lasts until November, they stand to suffer
losses in both houses of Congress. Hispanics who are now the largest
minority in the United States, have for the most part coalesced
on a pro-immigration view for comprehensive legislation, particularly
since most believe that the felony provision was mainly aimed at
Hispanics. The Republicans understand the real possibility of long-lasting
damage from the Hispanic backlash that would hurt the party for
many years to come. This is central to Republican strategy as the
Party has assiduously courted Hispanics in the past decade, attempting
to balance their numbers against the mostly Democratic black vote.
Republicans also understand past surveys that show that immigration
is not a driving force sending white voters to the polls. They can
therefore not afford to sit on the immigration bills, and must come
off as either passing some form of comprehensive immigration legislation
or put the blame for such failure on the Democrats. Part of that
strategy was already at work in the Republicans recently pointing
the finger at Senator Harry Reid, the Senate minority leader, for
slowing down the Senate compromise in not allowing unlimited amendments
to be introduced and in seeking assurances that Senate negotiators
would defend the compromise in conference with House leaders - points
without which Senator Reid feared that the compromise would be eviscerated.
The good of this country demands increased immigration such as
would become available in a comprehensive immigration package with
hope of earned legalization at the end. Besides the positive economic
factors in helping to replace the 30 + million retiring baby boomers
for whom there are no replacements in present-day America and keeping
the rate of inflation down, the cost to society will be great if
the immigration issue is not taken care of at this time and allowed
to continue boiling. This past decade has seen millions of undocumented
immigrants coming into the U.S. and educating their children in
the nation's schools. Does Congress throw away the potential of
all the children that we have trained to keep labeling them illegals
unfit to fulfill their dreams or even worse, felons? The Government
should be stamping green cards on their foreheads as soon as they
graduate from high school. Congressmen and Senators should look
at the situation as a whole and not just content themselves to intervene
in highly publicized sympathetic cases that reach the newspapers.
For the few high profile persons and the millions of other undocumented
immigrants, it is much better for this society to put them under
the big tent rather than keeping them on the outside looking in.
They are not leaving, and the Government is undoubtedly aware that
there is a long history in other countries of the fomenting of civil
unrest and conflict for groups which think themselves oppressed.
Currently the protests and marches are peaceful, but is there any
guarantee that this will hold in the future? Law enforcement agencies
are currently being drafted into fighting the immigration battle.
This is a waste of law enforcement resources, promotes distrust
in immigrant communities, but even more, will make encounters in
the future with undocumented immigrants dangerous, and if they are
labeled felons, possibly deadly, if they face the possibility of
real jail time. The time for a realistic policy is now in a new
morning for America.
With their hand deservedly caught in the cookie jar, continued
peaceful protests with American flags flying could be the impetus
to bring comprehensive immigration legislation home.
|